Ambiguity
Aversion, Comparative Ignorance, and Decision Context, Fox
and Weber
"Most choices in life have uncertain consequences. Decisions
to undergo surgery, invest in a mutual fund, or purchase insurance
must be made without knowing in advance whether the operation
will be successful, the fund will outperform the market, or there
will be a need to make a claim on the policy. Decision makers
are required to judge the likelihood of relevant events for themselves
based on computation, intuition, and/or hearsay, with some degree
of imprecision or vagueness. The contrast between clear and vague
probabilities was first discussed by Knight (1921), who distinguished
between risk, which can be represented by precise probabilities,
and (unmeasurable) uncertainty, which cannot. Interest
in the problem of vague probabilities was revived by Ellsberg
(1961), who argued that people generally prefer to bet on known
rather than unknown probabilities. Ellsberg's simplest
demonstration
involves two urns, each containing 100 balls. The first urn contains
50 red balls and 50 black balls, whereas the second contains red
and black balls in an unknown proportion. When asked to bet on
a blind draw from an urn, most people express no particular color
preference, but they would rather bet on the clear (50- 50) urn
than on the vague urn. This pattern of preferences violates expected
utility theory because the subjective probabilities of red and
black, derived from preferences, cannot sum to one for both urns.
Ellsberg's own interpretation was that in addition to the utility
of outcomes and the probability of events determining them, decision
makers consider a "third dimension", which he called
ambiguity. A more recent stream of research emphasizes
instead the decision maker's confidence in his or her knowledge
or information. Contrary to the ambiguity aversion hypothesis,
Heath and Tversky (1991) found that people prefer to bet on their
vague beliefs in situations where they feel especially competent
or knowledgeable, though they prefer to bet on chance when they
do not. The competence hypothesis suggests that ambiguity aversion
is governed by the decision maker's appraisal of his or her knowledge
of relevant events rather than some second-order measure of probability
vagueness. Furthermore, Fox and Tversky (1995) argued that perceived
competence only affects decisions to the extent that this dimension
is brought to mind. According to their Comparative Ignorance hypothesis,
ambiguity aversion is driven by the comparison with more familiar
events or more knowledgeable individuals, and diminishes or disappears
in the absence of such a comparison. This represents a sharp break
from previous accounts of decision under uncertainty because it
asserts that decisions are influenced by the cognitive context
in which the decision maker finds him or herself so that a particular
uncertain prospect may be more or less attractive depending on
whether or not a contrasting state of knowledge is salient. We
extend the comparative ignorance hypothesis by documenting four
new ways in which decision context can affect willingness to act
under uncertainty. First, people find uncertain bets more attractive
when preceded by questions about less familiar items than when
preceded by questions about more familiar items. Second, the preference
to bet on more familiar domains is less pronounced for the first
domain evaluated on a survey than for later domains. Third, people
find bets less attractive when they are provided with diagnostic
information that they do not know how to use, compared to when
they are provided with no such information. Finally, people are
sensitive to the relative competence of their counterpart when
playing a simple competitive ("matching pennies") game,
but not when playing a noncompetitive (coordination) game that
has the same mixed strategy Nash equilibrium".